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题名: 区域生态系统服务变化与预测研究
作者: 肖洋
学位类别: 博士
答辩日期: 2015-05
授予单位: 中国科学院研究生院
授予地点: 北京
导师: 欧阳志云
关键词: 重庆,生态系统服务,GIS和 RS,特征变化,驱动力,Chongqing region, ecosystem services, GIS and RS, changes, drivers
其他题名: Assessing changes in ecosystem services and multi–scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem services in Chongqing region, China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要:     从复合生态系统的角度来看,陆地生态系统是支撑与维持地球的生命支持系统,维持生命物质的生物地化循环与水文循环,维持生物物种与遗传多样性,净化环境,维持大气化学的平衡与稳定。重庆位于三峡库区腹心地带,是长江流域重要的生态屏障和全国水资源战略储备库,生态区位十分重要。其生态系统状态,不仅影响着社会经济的可持续发展,而且对于维护长江中下游地区生态安全具有极其重要的作用。近年来重庆经济的快速发展和区域气候的变化,改变了生态系统格局和生态系统服务,进而影响地区经济和环境的可持续发展。本研究基于 GIS和  RS技术分析了重庆生态系统服务的空间分布特征,近  10年来生态系统服务的变化及其驱动原因,还预测评估未来森林工程的格局变化及其生态效益。探讨地区生态系统服务功能形成机制并明确生态保护目标,提出生态系统恢复和管理的调控策略。主要研究结论如下:
(1)近些年重庆严格实施生态恢复工程(森林工程、退耕还林工程和天然林保护工程)基本实现了生态建设优先、收入增加和社会经济发展的目标,对构建三峡库区绿色生态屏障、加快农村产业结构调整、促进农民增收致富、推动社会经济可持续发展起到了十分重要的作用。
(2)重庆主要生态系统类型是农田和森林生态系统,其2010年面积比例分别为 39.2%和38.9%。生态系统格局从2000–2010年发生了较大的改变。森林面积增加了 2.58%,灌木和草地分别增加了 0.11%和 0.56%。农田生态系统变化最为显著,减少了3.30%。同时,城镇和水体变化较小,仅增长了0.21%和0.04%。相关性分析结果表明,人口的增加、经济的增长、城市化和地区发展规划是导致重庆生态系统格局演变的主要因素。森林和农田作为景观基质,对整体景观也有较大的贡献,它们之间的相互转变对重庆的景观格局和生态服务起着决定性的作用。
(3)重庆自然生态系统质量总体上呈现东高西低的趋势。生态系统质量的空间分布与海拔、坡度、降雨和温度的相关性较大,生态系统质量较高的区域主要集中在降雨丰富、温度偏低的高海拔、陡坡山区。近 10年来,重庆自然生态系统质量呈增加趋势,相关性分析结果表明,近年来地区温度的升高延长了植被的生长季节,提高了光合作用效率和水分利用率,促进了生态系统质量的提高。道路的发展,为生态恢复工程的实施创造了条件,有利于生态系统质量的改善。此外,森林工程的实施为地区森林质量的整体改善做出了一定贡献,新增森林生态系统整体质量偏低,需加大恢复力度,促进森林质量的提高。
(4)重庆2010年的土壤侵蚀量约为 2.23亿t/a,土壤保持量约为 14.69亿 t/a。利用市场价值法,机会成本法和影子工程法评价了各类生态系统土壤保持的生态价值。研究区 2010年土壤保持价值相对于2000年有所提升,2010年生态系统因防止土壤侵蚀而产生的土壤保持总价值约为 6.18×105万元。各生态系统类型中,森林生态系统土壤保持价值量最大 3.3×105万元,约为总量的  53.9%。
(5)径流调节服务较强的区域主要分布在植被覆盖较好的地区,如西南自然保护区,西部主要山脉,东北部和东南部植被茂盛的高山地区。径流调节服务较弱的地区主要分布在主城区和植被稀疏或无植被覆盖的地区。从2000–2010年重庆径流调节能力呈升高趋势,增加了约  2.07%,生态系统径流调节量提高了 7.07亿m3。径流调节服务的增强主要是因为近些年来地区所实施的生态恢复工程,大范围的植树造林活动使森林面积逐年增加。此外,重庆径流调节服务变化还受大气 CO2浓度,温度和GDP密度的影响,其中人口密度的作用相对较小。
(6)生物多样性和生态系统服务具有较高的相关性。在生物多样性的保护区域存在着较高的生态系统服务,说明保护生物多样性的同时也保护了生态系统服务。然而,以生物多样性为主要保护目标的规划体系并不能有效的提升生态系统服务的固有潜力。结合生物多样性和生态系统服务为保护目标,结果表明在重要区保护区域内,生境质量状况较好,同时生态系统服务也提供较多。
(7)采用情景分析的方法,建立了5种土地管理情景,基于InVEST模型,USLE模拟了3种生态系统服务在不同情景下的变化。结果表明:以生态工程实施后所产生的生态价值作为评价基础,情景 4 (径流调节服务为主要目标)是可持续土地利用管理的最优策略,因为在这种情景下人们的直接农业收益受到损失最小,而其他服务功能却能得到显著的提高。
英文摘要:     From the perspective of complex ecosystem, ecosystem services are the benefits supplied to human societies by natural  ecosystems. This grouped ecosystem services into four  broad categories: provisioning,  such as  the production of  food and  water;regulating, such  as the  control of  climate and  disease; supporting,  such as  nutrient cycles and crop  pollination; and cultural,  such as spiritual  and recreational benefits. Chongqing region,  one of the  most important  ecological zones in  China, is  located on the  upper reaches of  the Three  Gorges Reservoir Area  (TGRA) ,  the site  of the largest dam project in the world. The status of the ecosystem functions in  Chongqing has  direct  impacts  on  the  TGRA.  Recently,  rapid  population  growth  and  urban development  in  this   region  have  increased   the  demand  for  food,   housing  and factories, which have led to complex  changes in ecosystem types. In addition, global changes in climate  have also highlighted the  role of ecosystem services  and climate change  mitigation and  adaption.  In this  study,  based  on GIS  and  RS, we  applied models  and   mathematical  simulations   to   estimate  the   provision  of   ecosystem services  in   Chongqing  region  and   analysed  the  effects   of  climate  and  human activities on  the  spatial variations  in changes  of  ecosystem services  from  2000 to 2010. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Recently, the implement of ecological restoration project  including the grain for green project and natural forest protection project led to the rising of incomes and socio–economic development.  It  also has  played a  very important  role in  building the green  barrier on  Three Gorges  Reservoir, accelerating  rural industrial  tructure adjustment, promoting sustainable social and economic development.
(2) The dominant ecosystem type in the study area was cropland, and forest was the second major  ecosystem type, which  occupied around 36.34%  of the study area in 2000 and 38.91%  in 2010. Obvious ecosystem  changes could be observed during the  research  period.  The  area  under  forest   increased  by  2.58%,  and  shrub  and grassland increased  by  0.11% and  0.56%, respectively,  during the  11–year  period.Cropland  decreased  significantly by  approximately  3.30%.  Meanwhile,  urbanized areas  and  bodies  of  water  increased  slightly  (0.21%  and  0.04%,  respectively). Changes  such  as  the   increase  in  forest  and  decrease  in   cropland,  showed  that evolution  in  ecosystem patterns  was  mainly  driven  by human  activity,  especially ecological  restoration  projects,  such as  forest  engineering,  greenbelt  construction projects, grain–to–green projects and  natural forest protection projects. Especially in areas with steep  slopes and at high  altitude, where serious soil  erosion risks remain,projects  included  tree  planting,  aerial  planting,  returning  farmland  to  forest  and grassland, closing  hillsides to  facilitate afforestation  and  other measures  to protect the existing  forest resources,  and these  have been strictly  implemented strictly  and are taking  effect. The  distribution of  croplands in  the areas  with gentle  slopes and low altitude, coupled with dense population and greater  human disturbance, declined rapidly.  This is  probably the  result  of a  growing  population, urbanization  and  the development of  economy in this  area. Specifically, forest  engineering projects  have accelerated  the development  of  the regional  economy,  which  usually leads  to  the rapid  increase in  nursery  base areas  (i.e.  a  transition from  cropland  to shrub  and forest) .
(3)  Natural  ecosystem  quality here  exhibited  evident  spatial  heterogeneities,divided according  to latitude,  and reduced gradually  from east  to west.  The spatial variation characteristics of ecosystem quality are  formed by interactions between the influencing   factors   (climatic   interaction    and   human activities).The partial correlation between ecosystem  quality in 2010  and latitude, slope,  precipitation and temperature  was  positively correlated  and  statistically  significant.  With  the  rapid development  of social  economy and  traffic, local  government  had abundant  funds and  convenient  traffic  condition for  the  implementation  of  ecological  restoration project, which led to the improvement of ecosystem quality in typical area.
(4) The  total  amount of  soil loss  and  soil conservation  service in  Chongqing region  are 2.23×108  t/a and  14.69×108  t/a, respectively.  And the  soil  conservation service has  been improved from  2000 to  2010 as a  result of  vegetation restoration. Moreover, the  market valuation,  opportunity cost and  shadow engineering methods were  used to  evaluate the  ecological  value of  soil  conservation service.  The  total value  of  soil  conservation   service  in  2010  is   about  6.18×109  yuan  (RMB)   /a. Additionally,  ecosystems located  in the  counties  of Wuxi,  Chengkou and  Fengjie, those  in the  east  mountain areas,  performed  much  better than  the  west, from  the erosion control perspective,  and generally displayed a much  higher ecological value than the  others with  a capacity  of >2×108  yuan/a. Among all  ecosystem types,  the forest is superior in  the total amount and capacity of soil  conservation service value. These  results  provide   specific  information,  which  may  serve to  strengthen  the necessary public awareness about protecting and restoring ecosystems.
(5) Water  flow regulation  displayed great  heterogeneity in  terms of  its spatial distribution, with mountainous area generally performing  better than flat agricultural areas  and developed  urban  areas.  Obvious changes  could  be observed  during  the research period. The total amount of water  flow regulation increased significantly by approximately  2.07% from  2000 to  2010  (the increment  of  water flow  regulation was 7.07×108  m3) . Places  with positive changes  mainly occurred in high  mountain areas, whereas places  with negative changes were mainly  distributed in resettlement areas along the Yangtze River. As  for the impacts, the spatial variation of water flow regulation in the Chongqing region had a significant relation with climate and human activities at the regional scale. These results provided  specific information that could be   used  to   strengthen   necessary   public   awareness  about   the   protection   and restoration of ecosystems.
(6)  The  significances  of  biodiversity  and   ecosystem  services  are  gradually recognized  by human  as  an approach  towards  sustainability,  so it  is  important  to understand  relationships  and  congruence   between  them  to  support  conservation planning,  especially  in  the  hotspot  areas  with  a  prominent  role  in  conservation biology.  Depending  on  biodiversity conservation,  hotspot  areas  can  conserve  the largest habitat  quality but with  the least  ecosystem services;  In contrast, depending on  the ecosystem  services  of interest,  hotspot  can conserve  the  largest ecosystem services  but with  the  least  habitat quality.  Integrating  biodiversity  and ecosystem services into  conservation plan, we  found that the  conservation and regeneration  of
these  small  areas  would contribute  to  the  larger  ecosystem  services,  meanwhile, would  conserve  the  larger  habitat  quality.   Moreover,  the  current  nature  reserve selection  was not  maximize  the biodiversity  and  ecosystem  services compared  to integration  strategy, indicating  that  hotspot  conservation and  selection  is vital  for optimization  protection  of biodiversity  and  ecosystem  services,  and  has practical significance for natural resources and ecosystem management.
(7) Scenario 4 was  determined to be the optimal  land use management strategy since  it  guarantees  direct  benefits  while  also  increasing  hydrological   ecosystem services. Our  findings provide  valuable information  on congruence and  divergence among important  areas and the improvement  of ecosystem services.  It also  indicate that a systematic and comprehensive approach for scenario simulation and prediction that  can have  wide-ranging  policy implications  in  terms  of optimizing  ecological restoration strategies for multiple ecosystem services.
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/34449
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肖洋. 区域生态系统服务变化与预测研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2015.
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