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题名: 中国主要城市低碳发展与可持续发展的关系研究
作者: 陈喆菲
学位类别: 博士
答辩日期: 2016-05
授予单位: 中国科学院研究生院
授予地点: 北京
导师: 邓红兵
关键词: 碳清单,指标体系,Spearman秩相关,耦合 ; Carbon inventory ; Index system ; Spearman rank correlation ; Coupling
其他题名: Study on Relationship between Low-Carbon Development and Sustainable Development of Main Cities in China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要:     城市是人类经济活动的中心,随着城市化进程的加快,一些相关的环境问题日益突出,城市低碳发展和可持续发展已成为必然选择。对城市低碳发展水平及可持续发展水平进行科学的评价有助于了解城市发展状况及其影响因素,可为城市发展实践提供参考。分析城市低碳发展及可持续发展的关系,探讨其耦合机制,具有理论价值,对城市的协调发展也具有指导意义。论文通过对北京市和厦门市的案例研究,对其低碳发展水平及可持续发展水平进行了评价与比较,并对其低碳发展和可持续发展的关系进行了探讨。在此基础上,基于其他学者对中国主要城市的相关评价结果,探讨了指标体系及评价方法对可持续发展评价结果的影响,并对中国城市低碳发展与可持续发展进行了耦合。一些主要结果如下:
    (1)能源活动是案例城市最主要的排放源,占城市碳排放总量的 98%左右;工业生产过程中的碳排放和农业生产过程碳排放分别为北京和厦门排放的第二位,表明这两个城市在产业结构上存在一定的差异。从碳排放量来看,北京市温室气体排放总量远高于厦门市,这主要是由于两个城市在城市规模、GDP体量及人口数量存在较大差别。北京和厦门在用能结构上也存在区别,厦门市碳排放量较大的行业是能源工业和交通运输,而北京市则是工业和居民生活;而城市的用能结构不同,所采取的低碳发展措施也应有所侧重。
    (2)在评价的两个年份北京市的低碳发展水平高于厦门市,而且从 2008年到 2010年,北京市的低碳发展水平上升而厦门市下降。厦门市在城市生活污水和生活垃圾处理方面一直优于北京市,而且公众对厦门市的环境保护满意率也较高。但北京市在资源环境和低碳经济发展层面优于厦门市。厦门市应该在低碳经济发展和资源环境方面加大投入,特别是进一步挖掘减排潜力,而北京市应该在社会进步方面加大投入。
    (3)北京市的可持续发展水平在此期间有所增强,其中得分上升比较明显的指标有市辖区人均  GDP、城市化率、生活污水集中处理率和建成区绿化覆盖率,表明北京市在此期间除经济得到较大发展外,针对自身可持续发展能力建设比较薄弱的方面也做了很多努力并取得明显成效。厦门市在此期间可持续发展水平则有所下降,其中下降最为明显的是市辖区教育支出占 GDP的比重。两个城市低碳发展水平和可持续发展水平的变化趋势一致,某种程度上说明低碳发展和可持续发展密切相关。
    (4)研究表明通过  Spearman秩相关分析对不同研究结果进行比较是可行的。同一研究对中国 35个主要城市在不同时间的排名结果相关性极高且极显著,即整体上的排名结果在短时间内没有较大改变,这在某种程度上也说明可持续发展能力建设是一个需要长期努力的过程。在可持续发展评价研究中,评价方法的不同会导致评价结果的较大差异,表明评价的目的及由此确定的评价方法是开展相关研究的关键。
    (5)大部分被评价的城市低碳发展水平与可持续发展水平比较均衡,某种程度上这也说明了低碳发展与可持续发展的联系较为密切。兰州、哈尔滨与乌鲁木齐低碳发展水平与可持续发展水平明显失衡,福州、南京、天津和深圳也接近失衡;这些城市在今后的发展中需要注意处理好低碳发展及可持续发展的关系,协调发展。我国大部分主要城市属于强可持续发展—强低碳发展的耦合方式,表现为低碳发展与可持续发展相互促进。属于弱可持续发展—弱低碳发展耦合方式的 6个城市都表现出资源受限或者资源枯竭的特点,其中部分城市过去走的是高耗能、高强度开发的发展模式,但其可持续发展水平并没有得到有效提高。耦合结果还表明,低碳发展水平高,其可持续发展水平也会较高,印证了低碳发展是实现可持续发展的有效途径。结果还表明弱的低碳发展水平不足以支撑强度的甚至是中度的可持续发展,所以今后中国城市发展必须重视低碳建设。
英文摘要:     Cities are centers of human economic activities. With the accelerated civilization progress,relative environmental  problems  aggravated at  the same  time.  Low-carbon development  or sustainable development  has become  the inevitable  choice of cities.  Scientific evaluation  of cities’ low-carbon development  or sustainable development  level helps to  acknowledge state and influencing factors of cities’ development. It can also provide statistic references to cities’development practice.  To  analyze relationship  between cities’  low-carbon development  and sustainable development, as well as  their coupling mechanism are not only valuable in theory but also in practice.
    By evaluating  and comparing Beijing  and Xiamen’s low-carbon  development level  and sustainable level,  the essay discussed  the relationship  between low-carbon development  and sustainable development. Basing  on case study, combining other  scholars’ relative evaluation results of critical cities in China, the essay discussed the impact of index systems and evaluation methods on the result of sustainable development.    Also, the essay coupled cities  low-carbon development and sustainable development in China. Here follows the main conclusion.
    (1) Energy consumption is the largest emission source of both cities in  this case study and it takes 98% of the total carbon emission. Industrial production and agriculture production are the second  largest  emission  source  in   Beijing  and  Xiamen  correspondingly  which  indicates difference in industrial structure  of the two cities. As for  carbon emission, Beijing discharges far more greenhouse gases  than Xiamen. It is mainly  because these two cities are different  in city scale,  GDP  and population  size. Energy  use structure  is  quite different  in Beijing  and Xiamen. Carbon emission in  Xiamen is mainly from energy  industry, while it is mainly from industry  and the  lives  of residents  in  Beijing. Difference  in  energy use  structure  indicates measures taken for low-carbon development should be different.
    (2) Low-carbon development level of Beijing is higher than Xiamen in the evaluated  two years. Meanwhile,  from 2008 to 2010,  Beijing’s low-carbon  development level is increasing while Xiamen’s is decreasing. Xiamen is better in urban sewage and domestic garbage disposal,as well as public satisfactory rate to urban environment.    However, Beijing excels Xiamen  in resources environment and  low-carbon economic development. It  is necessary for Xiamen to increase input in low-carbon economic development  and resources environment, especially in emission reduction, while social progress is required in Beijing.
    (3) Beijing’s sustainable development level increased during this time period. Indexes with obviously  increased  score  are  GDP  per   capital  in  municipal  districts,  urbanization  rate,domestic sewage centralized treatment rate and green coverage ratio in built up area. It indicates that  Beijing  not  only  developed   rapidly  in  economy,  but  also  succeeded   in  sustainable development capacity construction  which it was once  weak in. During the  same time period,Xiamen’s sustainable  development level decreased,  in which, the  biggest drop  is percentage that education expenditure  takes in GDP. The  variation tendency of low-carbon  development level and sustainable development level of both cities keeps the same, which to a certain degree shows that low-carbon development  and sustainable development are closely relevant to each other.
    (4) The study indicates that using Spearman rank correlation to compare results in different study is feasible.  In the same study,  correlation of 35  main cities’ ranking results in  different time periods is  extremely high and significant.  In other words,  overall ranking results do  not change in  a short  term. It  also indicates  that sustainable  development capacity  construction requires  long time  of  hard  working. In  studies  of  sustainable  development, differences  in evaluation methods  can lead to  large difference in  results, which indicates  that the objective and evaluation methods basing on the objective are keys of relative studies.
    (5) Most evaluated cities are relative balance in  low-carbon development and sustainable development level.  It indicates that  low-carbon development is closely  related to sustainable development  to  some  degree.   Low-carbon  development  and  sustainable   development  in Lanzhou, Harbin, and Urumchi are out of balance. Fuzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin and Shenzhen are close  to  unbalance. These  cities  should  take  care  of the  relationship  between  low-carbon development and sustainable development in the future development. Most cities in China can be categorized into Strong  sustainable-Weak carbon development coupling mode. It  indicates mutual promotion of low-carbon and sustainable development. The 6 cities belonging to Weak sustainable-Weak  low-carbon  development  coupling  mode  are   restricted  or  exhausted  in resources.  Some   of  which   had  followed   high  energy   consumption  and   high  intensity exploitation  development  mode,   but  its  sustainable   development  level  did  not   improve efficiently. Coupling  results also indicates  that cities with  low-carbon development level  are generally   high  in   sustainable  development   level.   This  result   verifies   that  low-carbon development is  an efficient approach of  sustainable development. The  result also shows  that weak low-carbon development level is not sufficient to support high  intense or even moderate sustainable development. It is  necessary to pay attention to  low-carbon construction in future development of cities in China.



内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/36782
Appears in Collections:城市与区域生态国家重点实验室_学位论文

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Recommended Citation:
陈喆菲. 中国主要城市低碳发展与可持续发展的关系研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2016.
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