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题名: 中国能源系统生命周期评价与优化方法研究
作者: 丁宁
学位类别: 博士
答辩日期: 2016-05
授予单位: 中国科学院研究生院
授予地点: 北京
导师: 杨建新
关键词: 能源、生命周期评价、物质流分析、水足迹评价、节能减排 ; energy system, life cycle assessment, material flow analysis, water footprint, emission reduction
其他题名: Life cycle assessment and optimization of energy system in China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要:     随着科学技术的创新和发展,经济规模不断扩大,而依赖资源投入的经济增长模式暂时还未得到根本性的转变。资源耗竭,气候变化已经成为亟待解决的世界问题。能源作为工业发展和人民生活的重要基础资源,需求量持续增长。能源系统开采及使用过程对生态环境造成的压力问题已经成为制约能源系统乃至整个经济发展的重大问题。
    在此背景下,本文以系统的生命周期评价为基础,能源系统环境影响最小化为重点,减排潜力为路径,努力支持能源政策的优化。论文研究框架包括四个模块:评价模块、优化模块、减排潜力分析模块、对策建议模块。四个模块逐层递进,依次为下个模块提供理论基础和数据支撑。论文主要内容如下:
(1)基于生命周期环境影响的我国能源系统评价与分析。系统层次上,分析了我国能源系统的物质和能量流动特点,构建能源系统物质流动和能量流动模型。通过建立指标体系评价能源系统的可持续供应能力、不同生命周期阶段的能源利用效率、资源循环利用率和生态压力。研究结果表明,我国主要能源的生态压力(生态包袱)中水资源占到38%-95%的比例。
微观(产品)层次上,利用生命周期评价方法,对单位能源供应的环境影响进行评价;对各个省区的电力供应系统的环境影响进行评估和分析;并对我国不同能源技术水平进行评价,辨识我国能源技术的发展方向。研究结果表明,我国各省区单位火力发电碳排放因子与全国平均水平的差距在±60%之间。另外,本文还评价了能源系统的水资源消耗和污染状况。通过建立能源系统水足迹评价模型,对能源供应带来的水资源压力进行量化分析。研究结果表明我国火电、水电、太阳能发电、核电和风电的水足迹分别为1.19 m3/GJ,6.75 m3/GJ,5.3 m3/GJ,0.19 m3/GJ 和0.14 m3/GJ。
(2)基于生命周期环境影响的能源结构优化设计。基于能源系统环境影响评价结果,选取物质投入、碳排放、水足迹三类环境影响最小为目标进行能源结构优化模型搭建,并分析优化效果。运行结果显示,对于三类环境影响而言,优化后的一次化石能源结构能够带来减排效果在3%-5%左右,优化后的电力结构减排效果在20%-30%左右。
(3)基于能源系统评价和优化的能源系统碳减排潜力分析。根据能源系统生命周期环境影响的评价和能源结构优化结果,探索基于能源系统的减排途径,包括结构优化减排、清洁技术减排、效率提高减排、产业共生减排。根据减排途径在我国能源领域的应用潜力,计算四种途径的碳减排量。核算结果显示,基于2012 年能源消耗的碳排放总量,一次化石能源结构优化和电力结构优化碳减排效果分别为6.5%和29.5%,清洁技术应用的碳减排效果为5%左右,效率提高的碳减排效果为5.7%,产业共生的碳减排效果为0.1%。
(4)基于生命周期的能源系统环境影响评价、优化及减排潜力分析结果,提出了能源系统可持续发展的对策建议。能源结构优化是减排的基础,清洁技术的发展和应用是能源系统减排的核心,效率化、内部化、区域化、低碳化、共生化是能源系统发展的主要路径。
(5)本文建立了能源系统生命周期环境影响数据库,为材料、产品和行业的生命周期评价、物质流分析和水足迹评价提供基础数据。进行环境影响评价研究,需要大量的数据作为基础。能源作为重要的基础行业,是所有行业的上游。本研究建立的数据库能够为下游的材料,产品和行业的环境影响评价提供基础数据。
     本文建立了能源系统生命周期评价与优化的理论框架,从生命周期角度评价了能源系统的环境影响,以环境影响最小构建了能源结构优化模型,并探索了能源系统的减排路径,提出了能源系统减排的对策建议,对引导我国能源系统可持续发展具有一定的科学价值和现实意义。
英文摘要:       With the innovation and development of science and technology, scale of economy expands unceasingly. The economic growth pattern of relying on resources hasn't got fundamental shift. The depletion of resources and climate change have become pressing problems in the world. Energy is the important foundation of industrial development and people's living. Demand for it continues to grow. Ecological pressure caused by expoitation and use of energy has become the major problems, which restrict the development of the energy system and even the entire economy.
     In this background, this paper based on life cycle assessment of energy system, aimed at minimum of environmental impacts, focused on emission reduction potential,made efforts to support the optimization of energy system. This study includes four modules: evaluation module, optimization module, potential analysis of emission reduction module, suggestions module. Four modules have a progressive relationship. Each module provided theoretical basis for the next module. The main contents are as follows:
    (1) Life cycle environmental impacts of energy system were evaluated. At the macro level, this study analyzed the basic situation of energy system using the method material flow analysis, build material flow and energy flow model of energy systems. In addition to that, the paper also evaluated the material flow of energy system using the index system, including ability of sustainable supply, energy efficiency of life cycle stages, reuse of resources and ecological pressure. The results revealed that the water resource accounted for 38%-95% of the ecological pressure.
     At the microscopic (product) level, this study evaluated environmental impacts of unit energy supply using the method of life cycle assessment, compiled life cycle inventory at the provincial level and evaluated the environment impacts of different technology levels in China. The results showed that the discrepancy between greenhouse gas emissions of kWh thermal power in provinces and national was among -60% to +60%.
     In addition, this article also evaluated water consumption and pollution of energy systems. The water footprint model of energy system was developed. The water footprint inventories of energy system were calculated. The water footprints of thermal power, hydropower, solar thermal power, nuclear power and wind power were 1.19 m3/GJ,6.75 m3/GJ,5.3 m3/GJ,0.19 m3/GJ,and 0.14 m3/GJ respectively.
    (2) Optimization model of energy system was developed based on life cycle environmental impacts. The minimum of material input, greenhouse gas emissions and water footprint were the target for optimization model of energy structure. The reductions of the three environment impacts were 3%-5% by optimization of primary fossil energy structure and that was 20%-30% by optimization of power structure.
    (3) The emission reduction potential of energy system was calculated based on the environment evaluation and optimization of energy structure. Comparing to the greenhouse gas emissions based on energy consumption in 2012, the greenhouse gas emission reductions caused by optimization of energy structure, application of clean technology, improvement of energy efficiency, and development of industrial symbiosis were 29.5%, 5%, 5.7% and 0.1% respectively.
     (4) Based on the results of assessment of environmental impact, optimization of energy structure, and potential analysis of emission reduction, the suggestions for the sustainable development of energy system were put forward. Energy structure optimization is the foundation of reducing emissions. The development and application of clean technology is the core to reducing emissions of the energy system. Improving the energy efficiency, regionalization, internalization, developing low carbon and industry symbiosis are the main development paths of energy system.
    (5) Life cycle inventory database of energy system were presented in this paper. The studies of environment impact assessment need a large amount of data as the foundation. This database can provide basic data for the environmental impact assessment of material, product and industry.
    This paper established the framework of life cycle assessment and optimization of energy system, evaluated environmental impact from the perspective of life cycle,developed the optimization model of energy structure with minimum of environmental impacts, explored the path for emissions reduction of energy system, and made suggestions to reduce emissions. It is helpful to guide the sustainable development of energy system of our country.
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/36785
Appears in Collections:城市与区域生态国家重点实验室_学位论文

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Recommended Citation:
丁宁. 中国能源系统生命周期评价与优化方法研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院研究生院. 2016.
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