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题名: 中国城市化对区域碳排放的影响机制与管理对策
作者: 丁 阳1
学位类别: 博士后
答辩日期: 2017-12
授予单位: 中国科学院大学
授予地点: 北京
导师: 李 锋
关键词: 城市化,碳排放,区域发展,生态管理,政策 ; Urbanization, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Regional Development, Ecological Management, Policy
其他题名: The Influence Mechanism of Urbanization on Regional Carbon Dioxide Emission and Policies of Carbon Emission Reduction in China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要: 自20世纪90年代以来,随着城市人口快速增长,中国进入快速城镇化阶段。在这一背景下,中国成为了世界上碳排放量最大的国家,中国碳排放的规模及快速增长趋势使中国成为全球碳减排和低碳发展的热点地区。2009年中国提出2020年单位GDP碳排放要在2005年的基础上下降40%-45%的目标。因此,正确认识城市化对碳排放的影响,将对我国实现碳减排政策的制定和减排目标具有重要的意义。 基于文献学习和理论研究,本文假设城市化与能源消费和碳排放的相互关系具有多重性和复杂性,即城市化相关因素对能源消费和碳排放既有正向驱动作用机制,又有逆向影响机制,不同影响机制之间相互依存,相互联系。因此,城市化与碳排放的关系不能进行单一性质的简单概括,而需要在识别关键影响因素的基础上剖析多重影响机制及其相互关系。此外,城市化是一个动态过程,随着时间的推移,城市化在不同阶段呈现不同的发展特征。因此,不同城市化发展阶段下的碳排放影响因子和影响机制存在差异,必须考虑时间因素对城市化与碳排放的影响。 基于城市化、工业化影响生产生活部门能源消费的基本原理,本文首先分析了城市区域碳排放的关键驱动因子和城市化影响碳排放的主要机制,构建基于产业部门尺度的LMDI因子分解模型,计算各因子对区域碳排放增长的贡献,明确城市化过程中经济、社会、技术等因子对碳排放增长的影响机制和影响作用。然后,在城市化对碳排放影响机制分析的基础上,建立城市化与碳排放的关系模型,定量研究在不同阶段和不同地区城市化与碳排放之间的关系。最后,通过对我国30个省级地区的实证分析,提出了我国低碳城市建设的管理对策。 本文的主要创新点和结论体现为以下三个方面: (1)构建了基于产业部门尺度的LMDI 模型,明确了城市化进程中各经济生产部门和居民生活部门对碳排放的贡献。 为了深入全面地了解城市化影响区域碳排放的各种机制和途径,本文构建了深入各个产业部门影响因子的LMDI模型,对城市化发展中农业、工业、建筑业、交通业、商业以及城镇、农村居民生活部门中各个关键因子对碳排放的绝对贡献值和相对贡献比例分别进行分析,剖析在城市化过程中不同产业部门的发展变化对区域能源消费的影响,从而分析各产业部门对碳排放的不同影响机制,理解不同产业部门对碳排放贡献的差异性。针对具体产业部门的碳排放影响机制和贡献分析对城市化碳减排政策的细化具有重要意义,为生产生活部门碳减排措施的制定提供可靠的参考依据。 (2)建立了考虑内生性问题的城市化与碳排放STIRPAT模型,揭示了城市化对区域碳排放的多重影响机制。 通过深入分析城市化对碳排放影响的内生性问题,即潜在的不可观测变量对城市化与碳排放关系的影响,本文采用两阶段二乘法对STIRPAT模型进行调整,引入高等教育水平和医疗服务水平两个工具变量,修正了不随时间影响以及随时间变化的内生性因素。统计检验结果证明,基于2SLS方法的STIRPAT模型能够更准确地反映城市化与碳排放之间的相互关系,即总体上城市化对碳排放具有显著地反向驱动作用,城市化的发展有利于实现碳减排,然而这一作用的幅度并不大。该模型为碳排放与城市化关系的研究提供新的方法,可以广泛应用于各尺度的相关研究中。 (3)搭建了考虑时间因素的城市化与碳排放相互关系模型,探究不同发展阶段城市化与碳排放的相互关系。 通过引入城市化率的高次幂变量,搭建了同时考虑不同城市化阶段与碳排放的关系模型,分析时间因素和城市化对碳排放的影响机制,揭示了不同发展阶段城市化与碳排放关系的动态变化,反映了城市化过程对碳排放影响作用的动态特征。此外,通过对处于不同发展阶段的地区分别进行分析,明确了各地区城市化对碳排放具体的影响机制和作用幅度,对不同地区碳减排政策的制定提供决策依据,有利于考虑不同发展阶段和区域特征的碳减排政策的制定。
英文摘要: With rapid economic development and expansion of built environment since the year 2000, urbanization has led to great challenge of reduction targets in energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions. In 2009, the Chinese government proposed that the volume of carbon dioxide emission per GDP unit in China would be reduced by 40%-45% by the year of 2020. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is of great importance for the decision making of carbon emission reduction policies and the realization of reduction target. Building on the literature of regional carbon dioxide emissions, this study argues that there is an issue of complexity and multiplicity in the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption and carbon emissions, which can be positive or negative in different dimensions. Thus, it is necessary to decompose different influence mechanisms of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, the dynamism of the interactions between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions still remains further exploration. This paper aims to explore the disaggregate driving force of different sectors and investigate the potential of carbon dioxide reduction of them in the context of rapid urbanization. By using the panel datasets at a provincial level in a LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) model, we investigated the effects of various energy-related and socioeconomic factors on regional carbon dioxide emissions in 30 China’s provinces from 2000 to 2013. The results show that the factors of economic development are the largest drivers of regional carbon dioxide emissions, compared with the factors of structural change, energy intensity, and social transition. Meanwhile, evidence is found that the urbanization process has contributed to the regional CO2 emissions in China’s provinces through a variety of approaches, including changing the energy use characteristics of urban households, transportation, and business sectors. Finally, we found that the changing trend of these influence factors’ effect on regional CO2 emissions varied across different provinces, which means there are significant regional heterogeneity in the influence mechanisms of urbanization process on regional CO2 emissions. Furthermore, this study argues that the relationship between urbanization and energy-related CO2 emissions may have endogenous problems, because urbanization process is usually driven by the economic expectation of a region, which is related to unobservable effect of regional heterogeneities. As the unobservables may be significantly correlated with both urbanization and CO2 emissions, the estimated results of the STIRPAT model that uses OLS regression could be misspecified. This paper aims to explore the effect of urbanization on regional CO2 emissions by taking into account the endogenous nature of urbanization and to propose a revised STIRPAT model that integrates IV method and fixed-effect approach. The results show that the endogeneity of urbanization can be confirmed by the empirical tests of China’s provinces over the years from 2000 to 2014. When the endogenous effect of urbanization was addressed, the effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions turned out to be negative with a considerable magnitude. Overall, our results confirm that urbanization may provide great opportunities for CO2 emission reduction and regional economic transition towards low-carbon development. This study contributes to the literature that focuses on the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emission from three facets. First, by investigating the key contribution of each specific sector to regional carbon dioxide emission, the study sheds lights on our understanding of elements of influence mechanism by which urbanization causes the changes in carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the study addresses the endogeneity problem underlying the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions, by which a revised STIRPAT model is proposed to properly deal with the unobservable confounding effects. Finally, temporal and reginal heterogeneity factors are involved in the analysis of urbanization and carbon dioxide emission. The dynamism of urbanization influence on carbon dioxide emissions is revealed, which can facilitate the decision making of carbon dioxide reduction in regions with different levels of urbanization.
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/38615
Appears in Collections:城市与区域生态国家重点实验室_学位论文

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心

Recommended Citation:
丁 阳. 中国城市化对区域碳排放的影响机制与管理对策[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学. 2017.
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