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题名: 京津冀区域土地利用变化及其 水文效应研究
作者: 李周晶1
学位类别: 博士后
答辩日期: 2017-09
授予单位: 中国科学院大学
授予地点: 北京
导师: 李锋
关键词: 京津冀,不透水面,L-THIA模型,非点源污染,CA-Markov模型 ; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, impervious surface, L-THIA model, non-point pollution, CA-Markov model
其他题名: Hydrological Effects of Land Use/Cover changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area,China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要: 随着我国城市化的快速推进和城市点源污染治理的加强,城市降雨径流中的非点源污染对水环境的影响日益凸显。都市水文、都市生物多样性、都市局部气候以及都市非点源污染会随着都市最基本组分之一的不透水地表的变化而产生一系列生态环境效应。非点源污染的影响因素主要包括降雨、不合理的土地利用方式以及一些社会因素等。不合理的土地利用方式会导致流域污染物随着地表径流进入水体,进而导致水质退化。本研究选取京津冀地区为研究区域,对研究区内2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年的土地利用变化以及景观格局变化做了探讨,并运用长周期水文模型Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model(L-THIA)对四个时期土地利用变化引起的地表径流和非点源污染进行了初步模拟估算,实现对研究区非点源污染的定量评价。在此基础上,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来城市土地利用情景,并对未来土地利用情景下的地表径流和非点源污染负荷进行模拟预测。为城市群的非点源污染的初步控制和管理提出初步对策,为城市土地利用和水资源调控和保护提出合理建议。本研究的主要工作和成果如下: 对研究区2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年的土地利用和景观格局变化进行定量分析,结果表明近15年来,京津冀地区的土地利用类型的转换较为剧烈,城镇用地迅速扩张导致耕地流失较快。3个阶段内的耕地年变化率分别为-0.62%、-0.06%和-2.98%,城乡建设用地大规模增加,3个阶段内的年变化率分别为1.87%、2.73%和7.44%。通过京津冀地区五个典型城市的景观格局分析得知周长面积分维数、多样性指数和分离指数随时间变化逐渐上升,表明近15年京津冀城市斑块形状的复杂性增加和景观的破碎度上升。 基于L-THIA模型分析了京津冀地区不透水面变化对水文效应的影响。在验证模型的有效基础上,分别分析了京津唐2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年不透水面变化对径流和非点源污染的影响。研究结果表明,研究区年均径流深随着不透水地面面积的增加呈增加的趋势,京津唐建设用地面积比例从2000年的12.8%增加到2015年的20.4%,相应的年均径流深从63.8 mm增加到87.8 mm。从非点源污染负荷的影响来看,研究区三种污染物的比例也持续增加,全氮(Total Nitrogen,TN)、全磷(Total Phosphorus,TP)和SS(Suspended Substance,SS)三种污染物的污染负荷输出总量从2000年到2015年的变化率分别为41.86%、44.00%和54.96%。基于CA-Markov模型预测了京津唐地区2020年的土地利用情况,再采用L-THIA模型分析了2020年不透水地面覆盖度下的水文效应。首先对CA-Markov模型进行参数率定和验证,通过2000年和2010年的土地利用数据模拟预测了研究2010年的土地利用情况,发现模拟值与实测值相似,该模型适用于研究区。进而模拟研究区2020年的土地利用情况。利用L-THIA模型进一步分析研究区2020年土地利用情景下的径流深和非点源污染的变化。相较于2015年,2020年的不透水面(建设用地)的比例增加了3%,年均径流深也从2015年的87.8 mm 上升到2020年的90.8 mm,增长幅度为3.4%。从非点源污染负荷来看,TN、TP和SS三种污染负荷输出总量分别增加了2.94%、4.17%和5.38%。根据以上研究结果和文献总结,得出了降雨地表径流和非点源污染物的主要管控措施与对策,分别是从源头、输送扩散阶段和末端采取措施。从生态规划、生态工程和生态管理三个方面来提出城市硬化地面的复合生态改造措施与对策。
英文摘要: Non-point source pollution in urban rainfall runoff is becoming a serious environmental problem in the rapid progress of urbanization and point pollution control in China. As one of the most basic components of the city, the change of of impervious surface cover will produce a series of eco-environmental effects on urban hydrology, urban biodiversity, urbanlocal climate, urban non-point source pollution and so on, with the development of the city. The influencing factors of non-point source pollution includerainfall, unreasonable land use and some social factors. The study selected Beijing-tianjin-hebei region as the study area. The paper adopted four years’ land-use data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, using of geographic informational system, statistics and analyzed the overall land use changes and the typical cities’ landscape changes of Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan and Baoding. The L-THIA model was applied to simulate the influence of non-point source pollution and runoff by land use changes. And the potential hydrological response to the changes of impervious surface in future was evaluated based on CA-Markov model. The main conclusions are as follows. Based on the land-use data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the study quantitatively analyzed the overall land use changes and the typical cities’ landscape changes of Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Baoding and Tangshan. The results show that in nearly 15 years, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region continued to reduce the quantity of cultivated land, Urban land area is increasing, it into the main source of farmland. Annual variation rate of cultivated land were -0.62%、-0.06% and -2.98% in 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 respectively, the rate of urban land change were 1.87%、2.73% and 7.44% in three periods, respectively. In the urban landscape pattern, perimeter area sub dimension, diversity index and the separation index increased gradually with the change of time, indicating that nearly 15 years, an increase of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban landscape patch shape complexityand Non-point source pollution in urban rainfall runoff is becoming a serious environmental problem in the rapid progress of urbanization and point pollution control in China. As one of the most basic components of the city, the change of of impervious surface cover will produce a series of eco-environmental effects on urban hydrology, urban biodiversity, urbanlocal climate, urban non-point source pollution and so on, with the development of the city. The influencing factors of non-point source pollution includerainfall, unreasonable land use and some social factors. The study selected Beijing-tianjin-hebei region as the study area. The paper adopted four years’ land-use data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, using of geographic informational system, statistics and analyzed the overall land use changes and the typical cities’ landscape changes of Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan and Baoding. The L-THIA model was applied to simulate the influence of non-point source pollution and runoff by land use changes. And the potential hydrological response to the changes of impervious surface in future was evaluated based on CA-Markov model. The main conclusions are as follows. Based on the above results and literature summary, we proposed a complex ecological management of “source-discharge-sink” patterns for surface runoff and non-point source pollution. The compound ecological methods included edological planning, ecological engineering and ecological management was essential to coordinate the contradiction between urban construction land and ecological land, improve the urban ecosystem services and human settlement environment.
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/38658
Appears in Collections:城市与区域生态国家重点实验室_学位论文

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