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题名: 气候变化对我国城市的影响特征及适应类型
作者: 陆咏晴1
学位类别: 硕士
答辩日期: 2017-12
授予单位: 中国科学院大学
授予地点: 北京
导师: 赵景柱
关键词: 气候变化,适应,城市,中国 ; Climate change, Adaptation, Cities, China
其他题名: Climate change impacts and adaptation classificationof Cities in China
学位专业: 生态学
中文摘要: 气候变化已经成为城市可持续发展面临的共同主题,我国城市由于人口众 多,基础设施比较差,需要提高城市适应气候变化的能力,进行气候变化影响特 征以及适应类型研究对我国制定城市适应气候变化策略有比较重要的意义。 本文基于1951-2014 年气象数据,应用回归分析、空间插值分析等方法,阐 明了我国在气温上升、海平面上升、干旱、破坏性气旋、极端降水、极端高温、 极端低温和积雪等方面的气候及极端天气变化趋势及空间特征,以我国289 个地 级以上城市为研究单元,分析了气候变化对城市的影响,并对我国城市面临的气 候变化胁迫及适应类型进行了分类与识别,最后针对适应类型提出了城市适应能 力建设对策和建议。 研究表明:从气温的角度来看,我国年平均温度、年最高气温、年最低气温 都随着全球性的气候变化存在明显的上升趋势,其上升速度分别为0.034℃/a、 0.028℃/a、0.053℃/a。气温的上升速度明显与纬度和海拔高度有关,高纬度和高 海拔地区的上升趋势明显,低纬度和低海拔地区年均温度的上升趋势较弱。我国 气温上升速度最大的地区沿着我国北部边界分布,其次分布于我国青藏高原部分 地区,南方地区的上升趋势比较弱。 我国积雪状况整体呈现下降趋势,整体下降速度为0.003cm/a,华北地区和 青藏高原部分地区积雪深度下降速度比较明显,东北、西北部分地区和南部地区 积雪有所增加。而极端降水天气随着气候变化呈现增加趋势,全国年最大降水量 上升速度平均值为0.06mm/a,我国南部的极端降水增加明显,而华北却有所减 少。我国干旱情况也随着气候变化而增加,年最长连续无降水天数的整体增加速 度为0.02day/a,整体上呈现南部低而北部高的分布规律,长江流域干旱程度随 着气候变化有降低的趋势。我国各海域的海平面一直处于上升状态,在未来30 年各海域的上升高度在80-130mm 之间。 1)极端高温胁迫型城市分布分散,各个地区均有分布,在西北地区和沿海 地区相对集中;由于城市热岛效应的影响,规模大和发展迅速的城市大多属于极端高温胁迫型城市。2)干旱胁迫型城市主要集中在华北、广东和云南等地。3) 极端降水胁迫型城市主要分布在华南地区,还包括东北的部分城市。4)变暖胁 迫型城市主要分布在东北地区和华北地区,还包括长江三角洲地区的部分城市。 5)低温雪灾胁迫型城市主要集中在东北地区、河南,还包括长江流域部分城市。 6)台风胁迫型城市主要集中在东南沿海省份,包括江西、湖南等内陆省份,甚 至东北的沿海省份也容易受到台风影响。7)由于各海域随着气候变化海平面都 有明显的上升,则我国海平面上升胁迫型城市包括所有沿海城市。 总体来说,气候变化对我国北方的影响比较大,受到了极端高温的上升、平 均气温增加、干旱增加、积雪增加等胁迫影响。沿海地区受影响次之,包括热浪 天气增加、极端降水增加、干旱程度增加、海平面上升等胁迫影响,沿海地区由 于经济资源丰富,人口也比较集中,气候变化带来的气象问题带给沿海城市的经 济损失更为严重。华南地区城市受气候变化的影响比较小,主要受到极端降水增 加的威胁。受气候变化影响最小的城市主要集中在我国长江流域上游地区,尤其 以四川盆地的城市和云南的部分城市为主。 为了减少气候变化对我国城市的不利影响,需要采取积极措施来提高城市适 应气候变化能力。根据城市所属适应气候变化类型,采取有针对的方案策略,有 侧重的进行适应气候变化工作布局,可以提高城市适应气候变化设施的效率,保 障城市居民正常生产生活和城市的可持续发展。
英文摘要: Climate change has become the common theme of urbans’ sustainable development. Due to the large population and poor infrastructure, China need to inprove adaptation of climate change. Researchs on the climate change impacts and adaptation classification of cities have great significance to formulating appropriate adaptation strategies and rising adaptation levels in China. We analyzed meteorological data of China during 1951-2014, with regression analysis method and spatial interpolation analysis method, and illustrated spatial distribution characteristics of climate treaths including: rising temperatures, rising sea levels, droughts, destructive cyclones, extreme precipitation, extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature and snow. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the 289 prefecture level cities, identified the climate change stress and classified adaptation types. Finally, we proposed countermeasures and suggestions for improving adaptive capacity of cities according to the adaptation types We found that the annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature are all obviously rising with the global climate change, with 0.034℃/a, 0.028℃/a, 0.053℃/a. The speeds of temperature increassing are correlated to latitude and altitude significantly, temperature increassing of high latitude and high altitude areas is more speed than low latitude and low altitude areas. Areas where the temperature is rising fastest spread along the north border of China and Tibet Plateau, but the rising of south area is relatively weaker. The snow weather in China is also decreasing overall, and the depth of snow is decreasing with 0.003cm/a, North China and the Tibetan Plateau decreased faster obviously, while northwest and south areas are increased. The annual maximum precipitation is rising with 0.06mm/a, extreme precipitation events have increased significantly in South China, while most area of North China extreme precipitation weathers has relived. The drought weather which is caused by inhomogeneity in time dimension has increased by hydrological circle change, the annual longest continuous non precipitation days have increased with 0.02day/a. The drought weather change is regional difference obviously, northern is more serious than southern overalls, while the drought weather has relived in Yangtze River Basin with climate change. Sea level has increased in recent decades, and will be 80-130mm higher in the next 30 years. 1) Extreme heat adaptation cities are dispersing in China, and still relatively concentrated in the northwest and coastal areas. Due to the urban heat island effects the large scale and the rapid developing cities are mostly belong to this classification. 2) Drought adaptation cities are mainly concentrated in North China, Guangdong and Yunnan provinces. 3) Extreme precipitation adaptation cities are distributed in Southern and Northeast of China. 4) Warming adaptation cities are mainly in northeast and North China, some large scale cities of Yangtze River Delta region are also belonged to this classification. 5) Extreme clod and snowstorm adaptation cities are mainly concentrated in the northeast, Henan, and Yangtze valley. 6) Typhoon adaptation cities are spread in costal province of southeast and even northeast of China, Hunan and Jiangxi are also threated by typhoon some years. 7) Sea level rising adaptation cities include all major coastal city, because sea level has been rising in recent years. Damage of cities in north China by climate change is much more serious, especially in the northeast and the Loess Plateau. Those cities will face threats of hot wave rising, warmer, drought increasing, snow more by global climate change in the future. Coastal cities will be threated by more hot wave weather, warmer, more serious extreme precipitation events, more drought weather and rising sea level of climate change in the future, while there are more active economic and more citizens, and will make much more adverse effects of residents’ livelihood and urban sustainable development. Cities of Southern China which has fewer impacts of climate change, are only threated by more extreme precipitation events in the future generally. Cities which will be stable of climate situation and have fewer impacts of global climate changes, are concentrated in the upper reaches of Yangtze River Basin, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. In order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on cities, governments should make highly individualized projects and intensive policies to improve abilities of adaptations. According to this classification of cities to adopt strategies of adaptation to climate change, can improve the efficiency and ensure sustainable development, production and livlihoods of the residents.
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/38673
Appears in Collections:城市与区域生态国家重点实验室_学位论文

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院生态环境研究中心

Recommended Citation:
陆咏晴. 气候变化对我国城市的影响特征及适应类型[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学. 2017.
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