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中国典型城市化石能源消费CO2 排放及其影响因素比较研究
Alternative TitleComparative study on the influencing factors of CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption in typical cities of China
郑颖
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor逯非
2019-06
Degree Grantor中国科学院生态环境研究中心
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Name理学硕士
Degree Discipline生态学
KeywordCo2 排放,化石能源消费,城市,对数平均迪氏指数法 Co2 Emissions, Fossil Energy Consumption, City, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Lmdi (Method)
Abstract

        全球变暖会对自然生态系统以及人类的生存和发展构成巨大威胁,而人类社会经济活动引起的温室气体(以CO2 为主)的过量排放是造成全球变暖最主要的原因之一。城市是人类活动和化石能源消费及其CO2 排放最主要的区域,分析不同城市化石能源消费CO2 排放特征及其构成,明确不同城市CO2 排放动态及其主要影响因素的差异,是开展城市减排行动的重要科学依据。
        基于化石能源消费量数据获取的完整性及连续性,本文从中国九大城市群中选取11 个不同城市规模、不同经济发展水平以及不同能源结构和产业结构的典型城市,即北京、上海、重庆、广州、乌鲁木齐、唐山、合肥、贵阳、大庆、呼和浩特和哈尔滨。以这些典型城市市辖区为研究对象,采用IPCC 推荐方法和中国本地化碳排放参数,核算了2006-2015 年间化石能源消费产生的CO2 排放量,并分析CO2 排放总量、人均CO2 排放量、CO2 排放强度、能源排放特征以及行业排放特征,结合区位商法和纳尔逊分类法,将11 个城市分为4 类不同职能的城市,即综合服务业城市、工业型城市、资源型城市、建筑业城市,重点分析了4个不同职能城市工业行业的CO2 排放特征。然后运用对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method,又称LMDI 分解法)将11 个城市CO2排放总量从经济发展、能源强度、人口规模、产业结构和能源结构5 个方面进行因素分解,以定量分析5 个影响因素的变化对CO2 排放总量的影响作用。
        研究结果表明,11 个典型城市的能源消费总量差别较大,上海和唐山能源消费量最多,合肥和贵阳能源消费量较少。研究期内,北京和广州的能源消费年平均增长率最低,分别为-3.0%和0.89%。十年间这11 个典型城市的能源强度均呈下降趋势,其中,广州和北京的下降幅度最大,分别累计下降了59.12%和55.45%。
        2006-2015 年间,11 个典型城市中化石能源消费CO2 排放增长速度最快的是乌鲁木齐、合肥和重庆,年平均增长率分别为14.87%、10.56%和7.32%,而北京和广州的CO2 排放呈负增长趋势,年平均增长率分别为-0.12%和-11.82%。十年间累积CO2 排放量最多的依次为唐山、上海、乌鲁木齐和重庆,分别占11 个城市累积排放总量的20.60%、17.48%、12.01%和11.44%,其中上海和重庆为工业型城市,唐山和乌鲁木齐为资源型城市。然后是作为综合服务业城市的北京、广州和呼和浩特,累积CO2 排放所占比例分别为8.65%、7.95%和6.62%。不同城市之间人均CO2 排放差异较大,且表现出与CO2 排放总量相似的变化趋势。
       北京、上海、广州和贵阳为CO2 排放强度快速下降城市,重庆、哈尔滨、唐山、大庆、呼和浩特和合肥为CO2 排放强度慢速下降城市,而乌鲁木齐CO2 排放强度则为增加趋势,城市CO2 排放强度的变化与经济和CO2 排放的增速有关。研究期内,北京和广州煤炭消费产生的CO2 排放比值及工业部门CO2 排放比值均降至50%以下。整体来看,工业是11 个城市CO2 排放量最多的部门,并且4 个不同职能的城市化石能源消费CO2 排放量主要来自高耗能工业行业。
        经济发展是11 个典型城市化石能源消费CO2 排放量增加的主要促进因素,而能源强度是最主要的抑制因素。人口增长对11 个典型城市的CO2 排放均产生正向促进作用,但人口规模效应对CO2 排放的累积贡献值小于经济发展。能源结构的变化仅对煤炭消费比重较低且降幅较大的北京和广州的CO2 排放有抑制作用。产业结构的变化对北京、上海、广州、乌鲁木齐、大庆和贵阳这6 个第三产业GDP 年平均增长速率大于第二产业的城市的CO2 排放量是抑制作用。最后根据研究结果提出适用于不同类型城市的减排建议。
 

Other Abstract

        Global warming poses the great threat to the survival and development of human being and ecosystems. The excessive anthropic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly CO2, is one of the major causes of global warming. Cities are the dominant regions of human activity and fossil energy consumption Analysis of the status and composition of the CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel consumption in typical cities, and clarification of the dynamics and critical influencing factors of the CO2 emissions in different cities could provide an important scientific basis for mitigation action in urban areas.
        In the consideration of the completeness and continuousness of fossil energy consumption data acquisition, this study chose 11 typical cities with different magnitude, economic development situation, energy and industrial structure in the 9 metropolitan areas of China, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou,Urumqi, Tangshan, Hefei, Guiyang, Daqing, Hohhot and Harbin. With the IPCC recommended methods, Chinese emission factors and parameters, and fossil fuel consumption statistics, an estimate was made on the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 11 typical cities from 2006 to 2015. The characters of fossil energy CO2 emissions, per capita CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions intensity, energy and industrial characters were examined. Through location quotient (LQ) and Nelson taxonomy, these 11 typical cities were grouped into four different function categories, i.e., comprehensive service industry cities, industrial cities, resource cities and constructive cities. Especially for the energy fossil CO2 emission characters of the industry sectors of the four function categories. Then the CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption were decomposed by LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) method in the aspect of economic development, energy intensity, population magnitude, industrial structure and energy structure to quantitively analyze the influence of the dynamics of these factors among the cities. 
        The results indicated that, the total fossil energy consumption of 11 typical cities varies greatly. Shanghai and Tangshan consumed the most energy, Hefei and Guiyang consumed the least energy. Beijing and Guangzhou had the lowest average annual growth in energy consumption, which was at -3.0% and 0.89%, respectively. During the study period, energy intensity of all the 11 typical cities showed a downward trends, among which Guangzhou and Beijing had the largest declines, with a cumulative decline of 59.12% and 55.45%, respectively.
         From 2006 to 2015, the highest increasing rate of the fossil energy consumption CO2 emission happened in Urumqi, Hefei and Chongqing, and the average annual increasing rate was 14.87%, 10.56% and 7.32%, respectively. While the CO2 emission showed decreasing trends in Beijing and Guangzhou, and the increasing rate was -0.12% and -11.82% respectively. The highest cumulative CO2 emissions from 2006 to 2015 appeared in Tangshan, Shanghai, Urumqi and Chongqing, accounting for 20.60%, 17.48%, 12.01% and 11.44% of the total emissions of the 11 cities,respectively. Among these four cities with largest fossil energy CO2 emission, Shanghai and Chongqing were categorized as industrial cities while Tangshan and Urumqi were categorized as resource cities. The cumulative CO2 emissions from 2006 to 2015 of the three cities categorized as comprehensive service industry cities, i.e.,Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hohhot, accounted for 8.65%, 7.95% and 6.62%, respectively,  of the total cumulative CO2 emissions of the 11 cities. The percapita CO2 emissions were distinct among the 11 cities, but showed a spatial pattern similar to that the total CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions intensity went down fast in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Guiyang and slow in Chongqing, Harbin,Tangshan, Daqing, Hohhot and Hefei, but went up in Urumqi, the change of urban CO2 emission intensity was related to the growth of economy and CO2 emission.During the research period, the proportion of coal related CO2 emissions and the CO2 emissions ratio of industrial sectors in the total fossil energy CO2 emissions both decreased to below 50% in Beijing and Guangzhou. Emission from industry took the dominant position of the fossil energy CO2 emissions of all the 11 cities in long-term,and CO2 emissions of all the four categories of the cities were mainly from highly energy-consumed industry. 
        For all the cities, economic development was the main factor that lead to CO2 emissions growth; meanwhile, the change of energy intensity acted as the main driving factor of CO2 emissions reduction or constraint of emission increase.Population size increment made positive promotion effect to CO2 emissions in all the 11 typical cities, but the contribution to accumulated CO2 emissions was far less compared with economic development. The energy structure effect only inhibits the CO2 emissions of Beijing and Guangzhou, where coal’s proportion in fossil energy consumption was low and going down fast, At the same time, the evolution of industry structure could reduce CO2 emissions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,Urumqi, Daqing and Guiyang, where the tertiary industry GDP increased faster than those of the second industry. Finally, CO2 mitigation measures for different categories of cities were also suggested based on the results of this study.

Pages105
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/42360
Collection城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
郑颖. 中国典型城市化石能源消费CO2 排放及其影响因素比较研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心,2019.
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