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Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030
Mi, Zhifu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Wang, Bing; Meng, Jing; Liu, Zhu; Shan, Yuli; Liu, Jingru; Guan, Dabo
2017-01-20
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
Volume142Issue:9Pages:2227-2236
AbstractChina is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world. In this paper, we present an Integrated Model of Economy and Climate (IMEC), an optimization model based on the input-output model. The model is designed to assess the tradeoff between emission deceleration and economic growth. Given that China's projected average growth rate will exceed 5% over the next two decades, we find that China may reach its peak CO2 emissions levels by 2026. According to this scenario, China's carbon emissions will peak at 11.20 Gt in 2026 and will then decline to 10.84 Gt in 2030. Accordingly, approximately 22 Gt of CO2 will be removed from 2015 to 2035 relative to the scenario wherein China's CO2 emissions peak in 2030. While this earlier peaking of carbon emissions will result in a decline in China's GDP, several sectors, such as Machinery and Education, will benefit. In order to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2026, China needs to reduce its annual GDP growth rate to less than 4.5% by 2030 and decrease energy and carbon intensity levels by 43% and 45%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Department城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
KeywordCarbon Emissions Peak Input-output Optimization Model Integrated Assessment Model China
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/39107
Collection城市与区域生态国家重点实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mi, Zhifu,Wei, Yi-Ming,Wang, Bing,et al. Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2017,142(9):2227-2236.
APA Mi, Zhifu.,Wei, Yi-Ming.,Wang, Bing.,Meng, Jing.,Liu, Zhu.,...&Guan, Dabo.(2017).Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,142(9),2227-2236.
MLA Mi, Zhifu,et al."Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 142.9(2017):2227-2236.
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